Kenya’s political alliances that delivered presidential wins

By Peter Ochieng

The end of 2024 marks less than three years before Kenyans go to the polls to elect fresh leaders in 2027.

Political alignments and realignments are expected to reach fever-pitch from 2025, ahead of what is likely to be a hotly contested presidential race in 2027.

DAP Kenya Party leader Eugene Wamalwa recently hinted that a new Super Alliance is in the offing, comprising him, Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, among other like-minded politicians.

Wamalwa spoke days after Gachagua, speaking in Kalonzo’s Ukambani backyard said he is ‘done with’ President William Ruto at least politically, seemingly embracing Musyoka, himself a former Vice President.

"Wiper people led by Kalonzo have shown us grace and we have decided you are our friends for life. And we don't just say that. When we say it, we mean it," said Gachagua, who was impeached in October 2024.

He added, "We owe Kalonzo and you people. We are in talks with Kalonzo and we will strategize well. We are in talks as Kenyans and we are looking for a way to improve the economy and end the culture of lies.”

That begs the question, can the Gachagua-Kalonzo-Wamalwa super alliance deliver a presidential win in 2027? As you ponder over that, let us have a look at some of the alliances that delivered presidential wins in the recent past.

1. NARC

The National Alliance Rainbow Coalition (NARC) led by Kenya’s third President, the late Mwai Kibaki and Kenya’s second Prime Minister, Raila Odinga literally swept former President, the late Daniel Arap Moi off his feet in 2002.

Moi was coming to the end of his 24-year rule, and many expected him to back formidable names – the likes of Kenya’s shortest serving Vice President Musalia Mudavadi or former Vice President, the late George Saitoti for the ruling KANU party presidential candidate.

However, Moi settled for the political novice – Uhuru Kenyatta (who later served as Kenya’s fourth president) for KANU’s presidential flag bearer.

A mass exodus was experienced in KANU, with Kibaki and Raila coming together with other politicians to end KANU’s 24-year rule. Kibaki resoundingly defeated Uhuru Kenyatta during the 2002 presidential contest, with Uhuru graciously conceding defeat.

2. Jubilee Alliance

Many were not convinced when Uhuru Kenyatta joined forces with William Ruto under the Jubilee Alliance ahead of the 2013 presidential race.

Kibaki was leaving office, and Prime Minister then, Raila Odinga was the senior most politician in the race to the ‘House on the Hill,’ with many holding the view that Kenyatta and Ruto could not defeat Odinga, who had settled on Musalia Mudavadi – one of the Deputy Prime Ministers, as his running mate.

The Kenyatta-Ruto ticket carried the day. Even a petition and the Supreme Court by Odinga’s team could not prevent the duo from assuming office as President and Deputy President respectively.

3. Kenya Kwanza Alliance

From 2013, Moses Wetang’ula and Musalia Mudavadi solidly backed Raila Odinga’s presidential bid, with the hope that he would win and hand them lucrative positions in government.

It never came to be as Odinga flopped in 2013 and 2017. Perhaps with Odinga’s near-miss experiences at the back of their minds, Wetang’ula and Mudavadi decided to ‘change forests’ – a famous saying in Kenya's political scene goes as such, “forests do change but monkeys remain the same.”

It refers to the rate at which Kenyan politicians change political parties and alliances (forests) yet they do not change an inch.

Wetang’ula, now National Assembly Speaker and Mudavadi, the current Prime Cabinet Secretary supported President William Ruto, depriving Odinga of 200, 000 votes that would have made him Kenya’s 5th President.

Observers have numerously stated that Odinga would be president today, had he prevailed upon the two Western political bigwigs from ‘jumping ship’ and joining Ruto’s camp.