AUC chairmanship race: Will Raila Odinga succeed where Amina Mohamed failed?

Opinion

By Peter Ochieng

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is firmly in the race to become the next African Union Commission (AUC) chairman.

Odinga is battling two other candidates, in the frame of Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato, with elections set for February 15th and 16th, 2025 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

According to the African Union (AU) communique, the voting process will begin with all the three candidates on the ballot.

“Voting is conducted three times and if the third ballot remains inconclusive without any candidate garnering the two-thirds majority, the next ballot shall be restricted to the two candidates who obtained the highest number of votes and the candidate with fewer votes is withdrawn," states AU.

On Monday, Odinga’s party, ODM held a prayer session for him at the Bomas of Kenya, ahead of the elections. Bishop Simon Okwama handed Odinga a bishop’s crozier – a hooked staff carried by a bishop as a symbol of pastoral office, indicating that it signifies his leadership role on the continent.

If elected the next AUC boss, Raila Odinga will be in charge of the affairs of 1.3 billion people on the African continent. In perhaps what seems to be preparing psychologically for the poll’s possible outcome, Odinga stated that he will graciously come back if he loses his bid.

"The elections will be held next Saturday. If I win, that’s okay; if not, that’s also fine—I will come back home. I'm very grateful for your prayers,'' Odinga said.

For starters, Odinga is at the stage where Kenya’s Amina Mohamed was in 2017. Like Odinga, Mohamed was among the favourites. She lost to the outgoing AUC chairman, Chad’s Moussa Faki Mahamat.

She lost the battle after 7 rounds of voting, with Mahamat being elected for the second and last term in 2021. In 2017, the government of Kenya under retired President Uhuru Kenyatta vigorously campaigned for Mohamed, the same way President William Ruto has been drumming up support for the former Prime Minister, at any given opportunity.

Ruto believes Odinga, unlike his opponents, is better placed to champion for the unity and progress of the African continent. “We are very confident that the successful bid of Hon Raila is going to see the fortunes of our continent change for the better going into the future,” Ruto said in January 2025.

His sentiments were echoed by Uganda President, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. “He will help us in brainstorming, but the real power is with us. We are in charge of these States. We are the ones who can say we move and we move.”

The ODM party leader served as the African Union High Representative for Infrastructure Development from October 2018 to February 2023, which grants him the requisite experience to steer the continent forward, if elected AUC boss.

However, the issue of regions and language will come into play during the polls, with the Djibouti candidate having an upper hand due to his ability to eloquently express himself in Arabic, French and Somali.

Odinga is only fluent in English and Kiswahili, a factor that may work against him. As things stand, it is a tight race between Odinga and Ali. If he wins, Odinga will have succeeded where Amina Mohamed failed.

If he fails, the country will have to go back to the drawing board before fielding candidates for the AUC chairpersonship in the future.