Kalonzo must overcome Raila's Shadow to strengthen his political prominence

Nairobi, 

Wednesday, 21 August, 2024 

McCreadie Andias 

Kalonzo Musyoka, often reffered as Kenya's political gentleman, has declared open and wide that he will be on the Ballot at the August 2027 Presidential contest against President William Ruto. 

The former Vice president of Kenya has begun drumming up support from key political regions in the Country including the Mouth Kenya region that has a rich history of shaping the fate of presidential contests in the county. 

However, the Former VP is at Crossroads within himself, he must decide whether he must seek his quest for State House with or without Raila Odinga.

Kalonzo has been Raila's biggest political ally over the decade and has endorsed Raila's state House ambitions in three different elections both as a voter and a running mate. 

He first allied himself as Raila's running mate in the 2013 General Elections where they lost to the Uhuru - Ruto ticket, he agreed to support Raila again as a running mate in the 2017 elections where they were once again beaten by the the Jubilee government. 

Kalonzo once more shelved his ambitious and declared to support Raila in the 2022 general elections but only if he was nominated as Running mate, at this point, Raila's betrayal to Kalonzo became imminent when he nominated Nark Kenya leader Martha Karua instead, as the Azimo coalition Running mate, leaving Kalonzo out in the colds. 

Kalonzo and his Ukambani backyard were agitated by this desecion and he made a twisted decision to run for office on an independent ticket, he ditched Azimio and unveiled Andrew Sunkuli as his Deputy President designate.

However, his decision did not stand for long, the Wiper leader proved that he could not do without Raila and later re- joined the Azimio camp where he was promised the seat of Prime Minister should the Azimo coalition have won the elections. 

The outcome was Kenya Kwanza's Victory and once again Kalonzo found himself as collateral damage to Raila Odinga's failures.

During the campaign period Then DP William Ruto had criticized Kalonzo for his loyalty for Odinga which happened not to bear fruits for Kalonzo. 

Ruto Hilariously faulted Kalonzo's loss of hair to be as a result of his unreciprocated support for Raila. 

Ruto invited Kalonzo to join his Kenya Kwanza Camp, promising him a powerful position upon their Victory but Kalonzo rejected the offer at the expense of Raila. 

When Ruto ascended to power, he once again extended his invitation to Kalonzo into his government but again Kalonzo rejected, opting to storm the streets alongside Raila Odinga in a series of Anti-government protests. 

In the Aftermath of all this, Some sense begun to linger into Kalonzo's mind, He was once recalled making a public statement that he would be a mad person if he supported Raila again in another presidential election. 

He declared that it was now his time to run for office and it was time for Raila to return the favor and support his ambitions by endorsing his presidential candidature. 

Raila Indeed should return the favor for Kalonzo who has previously forged his previous political ambitious at Raila's expense, Kalonzo has sacrificed his political prominence to stand with Raila both in good and bad times.

He has been lobbed by teargas in the ‘maandamanos’ beside Raila and has mobilized great support for Raila from his Ukambani backyard. But will Raila return the favor and lift Kalonzo's hand? 

The Raila we know isn't very good at rewarding loyalty, instead he has a typical history of falling out with his biggest political loyalists including the current president William Ruto, whom he worked with at ODM at it's early days before firing him as Minister for Agriculture during the grand coalition government. 

Currently there's no doubt that Raila is ‘in bed’ with the government, Kenya Kwanza Administration has declared to support and ensure that Raila wins the AUC post, the president himself has even gone further and campaigned for Raila at international stages. 

As if it's not daunting enough, four members of Raila's ODM Party are now in President William Ruto's cabinet in what is described as a broad-based government. 

We do not know what Raila will give the President in return. Perhaps he will not run for office come 2027 at President Ruto’s convenience, but that remains uncertain since Raila has not declared in public against running for office again. 

But should he win the AUC seat, he might have to tone down on his internal political ambitions. 

We have recently witnessed weeks of the wild Gen-Z protests which have taken the country by storm and shaken the government and political class into fear and pandemonium. The protests were so wild that the government was forced to instigate a raft of policy changes and reforms within the executive and legislative level.

The Protests also painted a dark picture of Kenya's political class characterized by lack of ethical standards, deception, untrustworthyness, poor governance and corruption. 

The Aftermath of the protests jeopardized anyone who was close to President William Ruto as an enemy of the people. Raila happened to find himself at the centre of this crisis when he came out in an attempt to rescue his ‘new political brother’ William Ruto. 

Raila's move to allow his ODM Party to be included in President William Ruto's 'broad based-government' was taken as treacherous and a huge betrayal both to his supporters and to the youths who had earlier urged him to step aside from the opposition role in good faith and allow them to hold the government accountable. 

In some way, Raila's move to work with the government jeopardized Kalonzo too, since the Ukambani King pin could no longer risk working closely with Raila as before, over fear of being labeled as a traitor to the people. 

Kalonzo's new dilemma was to either cut links with Raila and avoid what can be best described as political 'collateral damage' or continue working with Raila and protect his political interests including a possible endorsement into presidency come 2027. 

It is fair to agree that, Indeed, Raila Odinga owes Kalonzo a big 'political debt' due to the long and strong allegiance Kalonzo has offered over the past fifteen years. 

Kalonzo has been Raila's greatest political ally more that Former President Uhuru Kenyatta or President William Ruto, and has every right to believe that Raila owes him one too. 

But currently, in the eyes and judgment of the people, Raila is not the best option for an ally now, especially when he has already been coined as a 'master of treachery'. If Kalonzo must continue to work with Raila, he stands at a risky position of losing his integrity and that would be very costly to his 2027 presidential ambitions. 

However, to many, Raila remains an enigma of Kenya's politics and an influential figure who can still play a big role in future political formations in the country. 

Raila commands the great Lake region consisting of Luo and Kisii Nyanza where together he can amass an average of about 5 million votes into one basket. He still has powerful influence in Western Kenya politics where majority of members of parliament hail from his ODM Party. 

Western Kenya and Nyanza region can together amass an average of 12 million votes and this numbers must be giving Kalonzo Musyoka sleepless nights. 

Somehow Kalonzo believes that best way to penetrate the Nyanza and western Kenya voting blocks is only through endorsement by Raila Odinga. 

Raila still commands great influence in the cost region and parts of the Rift Valley including the Maa counties and also the greater Nairobi City. 

Kalonzo will possibly lose more than he could gain if he chooses to abandon Raila Odinga and stand on his own. Sadly his current closest allies, Eugene Wamalwa, Martha Karua, Jeremiah Kioni and Peter Munya cannot offer a Quater of What Raila could give him, combined.

A decision to abandon Raila is a risky one and yet an inevitable path to command his own political prominence. 

For a man who has been labeled as an indecisive fence sitter, It is time for Kalonzo to deliver himself from the Shadows of Raila and believe in his own Political muscles. 

It is time for him to re-create himself as an independent political giant who can shape the political discourse of Kenya without having to hide behind the shadows of Raila or anyone. Kalonzo is too big to be anyone's political puppet and yet he has to recognize his potential. 

Yes he might slip Raila's endorsement but there's no loss in losing something that you aren't guaranteed you actually have.

Kalonzo must hit the ground running and embark on a serious campaign train to convince voters from Raila's backyard that it is time for them to support him in return even without Raila's blessings.

There's no error in trying, If Kalonzo embarks on an early nationwide journey to brand his name and sell his ideas to the Kenyan people, then he can earn ground and cement himself as an independent political elite who is more of anyone's stepping mat and capable of leading Kenya to the 'promised land'.