‘Prepare for enhanced rains,’ weatherman warns Nyeri residents

Nyeri,

 Tuesday, September 26, 2023 

KNA by Samuel Maina

Residents of Nyeri have been advised to prepare for heavy rains within the next two weeks as the much anticipated El Nino rains draw close.

Nyeri County Director of Meteorological Services Mr. John Muiruri says parts of Nyeri were expected to receive up to 600 mm of downpour during the first and second week of October and therefore an urgent need for preparation for such unforeseen occurrences like storm waters, floods and landslides. 

Muiruri has disclosed that some parts of the county like Kieni East will receive up to 600 mm of rain while others like Othaya, Mukurwe-ini, and Nyeri Central will receive between 500 to 600 mm of rain.

Among areas that will receive the least amount of rain include Mathira and Mugunda ward in Kieni west expected to receive less than 300 mm of rain.

“Caution (is needed) as we are going to have enhanced rainfall so preparedness is very important. They (both county government and residents) have to prepare adequately in all the sectors like roads, lands in matters of soil erosion. We have to prepare because the rains are more than what we get,” he has told KNA.

Muiruri has nevertheless downplayed the extent of destruction to be expected from the rains assuring residents it will pale in shadow to what was witnessed in 1997.

He was also quick to challenge farmers to take advantage of the rains by putting as much of their land under food crops to cushion them against unforeseen times.

According to a Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) report dated August 30, 2023, the climate outlook for the October-November-December period indicates the whole country is likely to experience enhanced rainfall, a departure from what has been the norm for the last few years.

The high precipitation will be driven by warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, indicating the presence of El Nino conditions.

Nyeri is one of the counties expected to experience heavy rains throughout the three-month cycle.

According to the Met report, “Highlands East of the Rift Valley, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nairobi and the Eastern parts of Laikipia will likely experience rainfall throughout the season. Rainfall amounts are expected to be above the season’s long-term average,” says the report.

 “The rainfall is expected to be well distributed in both time and space,” reads the report,” continues the outlook

Heavy continuous rainfall is also expected in the Lake Victoria Basin region, Kisii, Elgeyo Marakwet, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, West Pokot, Vihiga, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok counties.

The rains will begin in September before picking up in October and will prevail on until January.

In the north-western counties of Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu, the met department announced rainfall above the long-term average for the season is expected.

“In the highlands east of the Rift Valley, Nairobi included, rainfall is expected throughout the season above the season's long-term average. The rainfall will be well distributed in terms of space,” says the weather report.

In the lowlands, an above-long-term average for the season is expected while in the north-eastern counties, occasional rainfall of an amount slightly above average for the season will be experienced. 

Wajir and Mandera counties will get the highest rainfall which will be occasioned by widespread flooding.

Other areas likely to experience flooding include Nyakach, Nyando, lower areas of River Nzoia, Winam Gulf and lower areas of River Sondu in Western Kenya.

In the Rift Valley region, floods are expected is likely to occur in Gilgil, Narok town and Suswa while the coastal towns of Mwatate, Tana River delta and Mwatate have also been identified as high-risk areas. 

Kenya experienced one of her most memorable El Nino phenomena in 1997 followed by similar ones in 2006, 2015 and 2019.

However, the 1997 El Nino rains were conspicuously enhanced due to a high positive El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index which stood at 2.6.

This year’s phenomena is expected to be different due to its low El Nino index which stands at 2.0.

During El Niño, the SSTs over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual, while SSTs over the western part of the ocean become cooler than usual.

On the other hand, the IOD is defined by SSTs gradient between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean.

“In 1997 both the El Nino index and Indian Ocean Dipole were all positive so the combination of the two produced lots of rain unlike in 2006 when it was El Nino year but the Indian Ocean Dipole was not positive. So we didn’t have a lot of rain. The same case happened in 2015.This year both the El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole are positive so we expect enhanced rainfall. But again the strength will not be as much as what we experienced in 1997,”he explained.

 On July 4 this year The United Nations Meteorological Organization warned the world to prepare for the adverse effects of El Nino, saying the weather phenomenon which triggers higher global temperatures would persist throughout this year.

El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern typically associated with increased heat worldwide, as well as drought in some parts of the world and heavy rains in other parts.

El Nino is the large-scale warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

It usually occurs on average every two to seven years and lingers for a period of nine to 12 months.

“The onset of El Nino will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” warned World Meteorological Organization secretary-general Petteri Taalas.

“The declaration of an El Nino by WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilise preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems and our economies,” said Taalas.

El Nino events are typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia.

Kenya last experienced the El Nino phenomena in 1997, resulting in exceptionally heavy rainfall and deadly floods.

The consequent El Nino in 2015 had a higher index but led to lower rainfall, causing less significant effects than had been anticipated.

Courtesy; KNA