What are Raila's chances in the Mt Kenya region?
By Dr Vincent Ongore
I wish to caution you at the very outset that what you're about to read might cause you some discomfort. Many people would rather we don't discuss these issues openly. The fact is that, for historical reasons, Mt Kenya Region is unlikely to vote for Raila in the 2022 Presidential poll.
I have said this before. Let me repeat it here one more time for the avoidance of doubt. I know that politicians and their supporters never want to hear or read anything negative about their chances of winning an election. But wisdom requires that a leader should stop intermittently to check the pulse of the presumed support base. A politician needs to be sure that people are behind him or her. It's an exercise in futility to not do a reality check from time to time, only to be faced with bitter reality when it's too late and you can do nothing about it.
Ever since Azimio was formed with President Uhuru Kenyatta as the Patron, and Raila Odinga as the leader, there has been a presumption among the outfit's adherents that the Mt Kenya Region's votes are as good as tucked in Raila's bag. Nothing can be farther from the truth.
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File image of Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate Raila Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta. [Photo: Courtesy][/caption]Four months to the polls, I am yet to see any evidence that the Kikuyu attitude towards the Luo has changed an inch. There has been a sustained hatred of the Luo by Kikuyu and everyone else that they control or influence for six decades. This phenomenon of Kikuyu hatred towards the Luo started right during the colonial days when the Kikuyu were driven out of their land to create the 'White Highlands' which were inhabitable to the British.
Naturally, the Kikuyu hated the British colonialists together with the rest of the Kenyans who got into contact with and worked for them. The Luo are generally physically strong, hardworking, and easily educable. So, the British embraced them as workers and exposed them to schooling much earlier than were the Kikuyu. That explains the establishment of Maseno School in Kisumu in 1906 as compared to Alliance twenty years later in 1926.
According to Evans Pritchard, the top British Anthropologist, the British placed the Luo on top of all other Kenyan communities in terms of intelligence, sophistication, elitism, pride, leadership capability and social organization. But the Luo also carried a very caring attitude towards other communities. Despite the fact that the Luo community was very supportive of and instrumental in the fight against colonialism, the Kikuyu developed a toxic hatred of this community due to what they claimed was a conspiratorial dalliance with the British against the House of Mumbi.
The Kikuyu hatred of the Luo runs so deep to the extent that the latter are typically referred to unapologetically as ''Nyamu Cia Ruguru' (Animals from the West)! Can you imagine that?
Fast forward, in the run-up to independence, the Kikuyu needed the intellectual prowess of the Luo to help them navigate the ropes and establish administrative structures to run the new independence government. In their magnanimity, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Argwings-Kodhek, TJ Mboya and many others did their best - including paving the way for Mzee Jomo Kenyatta to be the first Prime Minister against all odds - to try to create a Kenyan nation for all Kenyans. Unknown to them, the Kikuyu were jealous of their intelligence and flamboyance and were silently scheming to eliminate or remove them from mainstream politics and management of state affairs.
We all know what happened to the key Luo people who had helped form the first government led by Mzee Jomo Kenyatta. To seal this ethnic hatred, the senior Kenyatta moved his community to submit themselves to a series of oaths against the Luo. Those oaths haven't been undone to date. So, the oaths that Moses Kuria was talking about were actually administered to stop any Luo not only from succeeding Kenyatta but from being president of Kenya in the near or distant future.
Successive Kikuyu generations have been indoctrinated for so long that to reverse the anti-Luo mentality engrained in their DNA will take decades. People need to listen to Moses Kuria very keenly. He communicates the position of the average Kikuyu voter. They will not vote for Raila, the Luo man. President Uhuru Kenyatta has genuinely tried to convince his Mt Kenya backyard to go with him to Azimio, but the reality is that they haven't heeded his calls.
In the last presidential election, Raila gave a combined effort of Uhuru and Ruto a run for their money despite the fact that he got less than 15% of the votes cast in the Mt Kenya Region. Most of the 15% were non-Kikuyu voters who were residing in the region. It's highly probable that Raila actually got less than 1% of the Kikuyu vote. Fortunately, the Kikuyu have never hidden the fact that they were told not to vote for any Luo, not just Raila.
There's no evidence that the voting pattern is likely to change in favour of Raila in 2022. The change of heart cannot begin at the ballot; there will be need for a deliberate effort to disabuse the Kikuyu community of this rather archaic, backward and primitive hatred against a community that has absolutely nothing against them.
[caption id="attachment_12072" align="alignnone" width="2560"]
President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga during the ODM NDC at the Kasarani Indoor arena on Saturday, February 26, 2022. |Courtesy| PSCU|[/caption]
For the avoidance of doubt, the people of Mt Kenya Region aren't darlings of Deputy President William Ruto either; they simply hate Raila. For that reason, I would beg the Azimio Team that as they sit to strategize, they should take the worst-case scenario with respect to Azimio's chances in the entire Mt Kenya Region. Embu and Meru always vote alongside their Kikuyu cousins. This has absolutely nothing to do with Ruto's campaigns there. They simply hate the Luo. Luckily, Raila has always garnered enough votes across the country to stop the GEMA and Kalenjin voting blocs from upstaging him.
Prudence requires that strategists work with a figure of about 10% in both Mt Kenya and Kalenjin regions. That's my opinion. So, what's the way forward? As a mitigating factor, the Azimio Team must seek to confine Ruto to Central Kenya and Kalenjin land.
In the 2017 presidential poll, the difference between Uhuru and Raila in Rift Valley was a paltry 400,000 votes, suggesting that most of the non-Kikuyu and non-Kalenjin voters in the region actually voted for Raila. History is likely to be repeated. More emphasis should be laid in vote-rich, but contested areas such as Bungoma, Trans-Nzoia, Vihiga, Kwale, Nairobi and Kajiado.
With Kalonzo in Azimio, and Abagusii leaders having taken over Azimio as their own baby, Raila stands a great chance of triumphing.
Azimio must, however, guard against voter apathy and under-voting. Voter apathy occurs when people who should be registered to vote choose not to take the vote. On the other hand, under-voting is a situation where people who are eligible to vote and have a voter's card, choose not to vote. Both phenomena are caused by voter disillusionment. One of the key causes of disillusionment is voter disenfranchisement.
Our experience with party primaries in Kenya indicates that where candidates are handpicked, voters lose interest in party processes. The consequence is poor voter registration and turnout. Political parties have a duty to engender a democratic culture in Kenya. The ball is in Azimio's court. Let's see how they dribble it.
Overall, Raila stands a huge chance to clinch the big prize if Azimio manages the processes competently.
Thank you.
NB: poleni sana kama nimewakosea. Lakini, lazima tuambiane ukweli.
The author is a senior lecturer at the Technical University of Kenya (TUK).
File image of Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate Raila Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta. [Photo: Courtesy][/caption]Four months to the polls, I am yet to see any evidence that the Kikuyu attitude towards the Luo has changed an inch. There has been a sustained hatred of the Luo by Kikuyu and everyone else that they control or influence for six decades. This phenomenon of Kikuyu hatred towards the Luo started right during the colonial days when the Kikuyu were driven out of their land to create the 'White Highlands' which were inhabitable to the British.
Naturally, the Kikuyu hated the British colonialists together with the rest of the Kenyans who got into contact with and worked for them. The Luo are generally physically strong, hardworking, and easily educable. So, the British embraced them as workers and exposed them to schooling much earlier than were the Kikuyu. That explains the establishment of Maseno School in Kisumu in 1906 as compared to Alliance twenty years later in 1926.
According to Evans Pritchard, the top British Anthropologist, the British placed the Luo on top of all other Kenyan communities in terms of intelligence, sophistication, elitism, pride, leadership capability and social organization. But the Luo also carried a very caring attitude towards other communities. Despite the fact that the Luo community was very supportive of and instrumental in the fight against colonialism, the Kikuyu developed a toxic hatred of this community due to what they claimed was a conspiratorial dalliance with the British against the House of Mumbi.
The Kikuyu hatred of the Luo runs so deep to the extent that the latter are typically referred to unapologetically as ''Nyamu Cia Ruguru' (Animals from the West)! Can you imagine that?
Fast forward, in the run-up to independence, the Kikuyu needed the intellectual prowess of the Luo to help them navigate the ropes and establish administrative structures to run the new independence government. In their magnanimity, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Argwings-Kodhek, TJ Mboya and many others did their best - including paving the way for Mzee Jomo Kenyatta to be the first Prime Minister against all odds - to try to create a Kenyan nation for all Kenyans. Unknown to them, the Kikuyu were jealous of their intelligence and flamboyance and were silently scheming to eliminate or remove them from mainstream politics and management of state affairs.
We all know what happened to the key Luo people who had helped form the first government led by Mzee Jomo Kenyatta. To seal this ethnic hatred, the senior Kenyatta moved his community to submit themselves to a series of oaths against the Luo. Those oaths haven't been undone to date. So, the oaths that Moses Kuria was talking about were actually administered to stop any Luo not only from succeeding Kenyatta but from being president of Kenya in the near or distant future.
Successive Kikuyu generations have been indoctrinated for so long that to reverse the anti-Luo mentality engrained in their DNA will take decades. People need to listen to Moses Kuria very keenly. He communicates the position of the average Kikuyu voter. They will not vote for Raila, the Luo man. President Uhuru Kenyatta has genuinely tried to convince his Mt Kenya backyard to go with him to Azimio, but the reality is that they haven't heeded his calls.
In the last presidential election, Raila gave a combined effort of Uhuru and Ruto a run for their money despite the fact that he got less than 15% of the votes cast in the Mt Kenya Region. Most of the 15% were non-Kikuyu voters who were residing in the region. It's highly probable that Raila actually got less than 1% of the Kikuyu vote. Fortunately, the Kikuyu have never hidden the fact that they were told not to vote for any Luo, not just Raila.
There's no evidence that the voting pattern is likely to change in favour of Raila in 2022. The change of heart cannot begin at the ballot; there will be need for a deliberate effort to disabuse the Kikuyu community of this rather archaic, backward and primitive hatred against a community that has absolutely nothing against them.
[caption id="attachment_12072" align="alignnone" width="2560"] President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga during the ODM NDC at the Kasarani Indoor arena on Saturday, February 26, 2022. |Courtesy| PSCU|[/caption]
For the avoidance of doubt, the people of Mt Kenya Region aren't darlings of Deputy President William Ruto either; they simply hate Raila. For that reason, I would beg the Azimio Team that as they sit to strategize, they should take the worst-case scenario with respect to Azimio's chances in the entire Mt Kenya Region. Embu and Meru always vote alongside their Kikuyu cousins. This has absolutely nothing to do with Ruto's campaigns there. They simply hate the Luo. Luckily, Raila has always garnered enough votes across the country to stop the GEMA and Kalenjin voting blocs from upstaging him.
Prudence requires that strategists work with a figure of about 10% in both Mt Kenya and Kalenjin regions. That's my opinion. So, what's the way forward? As a mitigating factor, the Azimio Team must seek to confine Ruto to Central Kenya and Kalenjin land.
In the 2017 presidential poll, the difference between Uhuru and Raila in Rift Valley was a paltry 400,000 votes, suggesting that most of the non-Kikuyu and non-Kalenjin voters in the region actually voted for Raila. History is likely to be repeated. More emphasis should be laid in vote-rich, but contested areas such as Bungoma, Trans-Nzoia, Vihiga, Kwale, Nairobi and Kajiado.
With Kalonzo in Azimio, and Abagusii leaders having taken over Azimio as their own baby, Raila stands a great chance of triumphing.
Azimio must, however, guard against voter apathy and under-voting. Voter apathy occurs when people who should be registered to vote choose not to take the vote. On the other hand, under-voting is a situation where people who are eligible to vote and have a voter's card, choose not to vote. Both phenomena are caused by voter disillusionment. One of the key causes of disillusionment is voter disenfranchisement.
Our experience with party primaries in Kenya indicates that where candidates are handpicked, voters lose interest in party processes. The consequence is poor voter registration and turnout. Political parties have a duty to engender a democratic culture in Kenya. The ball is in Azimio's court. Let's see how they dribble it.
Overall, Raila stands a huge chance to clinch the big prize if Azimio manages the processes competently.
Thank you.
NB: poleni sana kama nimewakosea. Lakini, lazima tuambiane ukweli.
The author is a senior lecturer at the Technical University of Kenya (TUK). What's Your Reaction?
