AFCON 2025 analysis: Teams expected to advance to round of 16

Opinion

By Peter Ochieng 

The stage is now set for mouthwatering clashes during the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) tournament in Morocco, after the Confederation of African Football (CAF) revealed group pairings during a draw conducted on Monday night.  

December 21, 2025 to January 18, 2026 are the dates to mark on your calendar.

Morrocco will be hosting the tournament for the second time, after claiming the title as hosts in 1988, long before some of you reading this were born.   

The initial target for the coaches and players of the 2024 teams taking part in this year’s edition is to negotiate a corner past the group stage, and make it to the round of 16, as a clear path to glory.

Teams were drawn into six groups each containing four sides. The top two teams in each pool will advance to the round of 16, alongside with the four best third-placed sides.

Analysis

Group A

Hosts Morocco headline Group A and will take on Mali, Zambia and Comoros in what looks like an easy pairing for the North Africans.

Barring any calamity, the Moroccans are expected to cruise past their three opponents and top group A.

In 2022, Morocco became the first African team to reach the World Cup semis, and the bulk of the players that wrote history in Qatar, the likes of Achraf Hakimi are still going strong.  

With Morrocco out of the picture, it will be up to Mali and Zambia to fight for the second spot. My prediction is that Mali will finish runners up in the group, ahead of 2012 champions, Chipolopolo of Zambia.

Comoros, making their second appearance, will finish last.

Group B

At 32, Egyptian talisman Mohamed Salah will probably be making his last AFCON appearance. 

Despite breaking record after record with Liverpool in England, he has little to write home about in the national team colours.  

 This is expected to be his year to push Egypt like never before, against South Africa, Angola and Zimbabwe. The Pharaohs, 7-time record AFCON winners have all it takes to lead this group.

 South Africa, Angola and Zimbabwe will finish 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively.  

 Group C

Nigeria, Tunisia, and two East African neighbors in the frame of Uganda and Tanzania will come against each other in this group.

Having lost to hosts Ivory Coast during the 2023 final, all odds are for Nigeria to top this group ahead of Tunisia which is likely to finish second.

 The ‘East African’ derby will see Uganda edge out Tanzania to finish third.

 Group D

On paper, this is an easy group for Senegal and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Benin and Botswana will have to battle for the third spot.  

Group E

2019 Champions Algeria will come up against 2013 runners up Burkina Faso, Equatorial Guinea and Sudan in this group.

In terms of squad depth and pure football levels, Algerians and the Burkinabe are shoulders high above Equatorial Guinea and Sudan.

Group F

Defending Champions Ivory Coast, West African rivals Cameroon, Gabon and Mozambique make up this group.

It may prove to be an easy one for Cameroon and Ivory Coast against Gabon and Mozambique.

Whereas the Ivorians are seeking to win back-to-back titles, Cameroon are the most successful team in AFCON history after Egypt – with 5 titles.

Either team is capable of topping this group.  

Dark horses

Despite being perceived weak, some teams are capable of springing up surprises. The likes of Angola, Uganda, Gabon and Sudan have what it takes to spring up surprises, ‘here and there.’

Sudan will go into the tournament with extra motivation, having qualified in the heart of a civil war back at home.

In fact, the team coached by Ghana legend Stephen Appiah qualified at the expense of Black Stars, while playing all the matches away due to the civil war.

If they fail to finish second in their groups, Angola, Uganda, Gabon and Sudan will advance to the round of 16 as four-third best placed teams.