Dry conditions expected in the northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa

Kiambu, Thursday May 25, 2023

KNA by Wangari Ndirangu

 Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) Thursday announced that the June to September (JJAS) 2023 forecast shows high chances of drier than usual weather conditions across the northern parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).

IGAD is a body of eight member states of Kenya, Uganda, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan

According to the prediction, Western Kenya, Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, northern Uganda, and much of South Sudan and Sudan are expected to receive insufficient rainfall until the end of the season.

ICPAC’s analysis also indicates an increased likelihood of warmer than usual conditions over the entire region, particularly over central and northern Kenya, northern Sudan, parts of southern and central to western Ethiopia, central and northern Somalia, and coastal parts of Tanzania.

Speaking during a hybrid meeting today with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the region and other partners to issue the June - September 2023 seasonal forecast, Dr. Guleid Artan, ICPAC Director, said that the June to September rainfall season is particularly important for the northern regions of the GHA, where it contributes to more than 50 percent of the annual total rainfall.

He called for heightened vigilance as the conditions forecast could very well increase food insecurity in the region even as depressed rainfall, coupled with warmer than usual temperatures, are likely to affect crop productivity, with the risk of crop wilting and a hastened decline in pasture and water availability.

“I want to appeal to IGAD’s partners to stay mobilized and continue to respond to the crisis where 49 million people are still highly-food insecure in the region”, Dr. Artan said.

In most parts of the region, above average rainfall was recorded during the March to May (MAM) 2023 season, bringing some respite to the communities most affected by five consecutive failed rainfall seasons in parts of Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia.

Hussen Seid, Climate Modelling Expert at ICPAC said that it is now very likely that we will transition from La Niña to El Niño between July and September.

“At this stage, there is no indication of the strength or duration of El Niño, but in general it is associated with depressed rainfall between June and September in the north of the region and wetter conditions between October and December in the equatorial parts,” he said.

Seid noted that it is a must that all get prepared for much wetter weather towards the end of the year and encouraged users to consult ICPAC weekly and monthly updates that have a high degree of predictability.

Deputy Director General of the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute Mr. Kinfe H/Mariyam said “Weather and climate have no boundaries; hence we should work collaboratively. Without doubt, we have gained a lot from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre. Let’s continue to deepen the work between our scientists at the regional level."

Today’s forum brought together climate services providers and users from key socio-economic sectors, governmental and non-governmental organizations, decision-makers, climate scientists, and civil society stakeholders, among others, to discuss impacts and mitigation measures for the upcoming season.

ICPAC is a designated Regional Climate Centre by the World Meteorological Organization. Its seasonal forecast is based on an analysis of several global climate model predictions customized for the GHA and in this instance scientists have produced a consolidated forecast from seven models which increases its reliability, and the forecast indicates a drier June to September (JJAS) 2023 season.

Courtesy ; K. N. A