William Ruto's political game plan: Is a second handshake in the offing?

Deputy President Dr William Samoei Ruto is a man under siege. If anyone was to take time to unfurl and analyse his political standing, body language, verbal utterances and emotional behaviour, he would find a lonely, dejected, deflated, desperate political Godfather who despite putting on a brave face in public is thoroughly disabled.

Ruto has been forced by Political circumstances to assume a bitter personality characterised by frequent delinquents like tantrums, trained on his Political nemeses, ODM leader Raila Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta.

There is more than circumstantial evidence to conclude that Dr Ruto's political star is dimming with every passing day as the election date draws closer. Whereas just a few months ago, Ruto was the undisputed Presidential front-runner, time has turned into his worst nightmare, wearing him down while allowing Raila Odinga of the Azimio la Umoja political coalition to shine and outpace him.

But the million-dollar questions are, What chance does Ruto have at the Presidency? Can Ruto conquer both Raila and Uhuru to emerge victorious in the coming polls? What is Ruto's game plan?

[caption id="attachment_7769" align="alignnone" width="1200"] File image of Deputy President William Ruto and ODM Leader Raila Odinga. |Photo| Courtesy|[/caption]

In answering the questions above, we must look back so as to decipher, analyse and appreciate how Kenya's Political landscape has evolved, from what was hitherto considered a 'foregone case' to what is now a quagmire for Ruto's supporters and a 'sure bet' for Raila's followers.

Politics is not for the faint-hearted. Politics is not for the poor nor holy. Politics requires tenacity, mercilessness, shrewdness, stamina and a high level of Intellectualism. In politics, no assumptions should ever be made, because any unverified, uncontrolled assumption can easily turn regrettably cataclysmic. And here is where Ruto's Waterloo lies.

William Ruto must have chewed more than he could conveniently swallow. He celebrated rather too early, a false victory that only existed in theory and in wild dreams. That perceived success was far from being realistic. He literally counted his chicks long before they hatched. Ruto had grossly underestimated Uhuru's Political spine and Raila's Political mastery. He thought he had come of age and could challenge and subdue his Political mentors in a Political duel. That was a big mistake! It was a simple case of a frog thinking it could swallow a large poisonous snake.

Can Ruto rediscover himself and outdo his Boss, Uhuru Kenyatta?

The chances of Dr Ruto changing his political trajectory for the better are slim. His ability to wrestle down an emergent, energetic Uhuru and a tireless Raila is close to being impossible. Only a miracle can deliver it and such miracles are too rare nowadays.

Ruto understands that Raila commands a huge following. He knows deep down in his heart, lungs and intestines that Raila is not and cannot be regarded as a State Project because Raila is very popular and has 'won' the last few elections without state assistance. Raila is a self-made Political enigma. That Raila garnered 46% of total votes cast in previous elections underlines this position. Indeed one can argue that one of the reasons why President Uhuru Kenyatta chose to support Raila is because of Raila's popularity. Raila was/is, therefore, less burdensome to support.

It is therefore an ordinary, cheap tool of propaganda when Ruto and his desperate, disillusioned, hangers-on refer to Raila as a State Project, with the mistaken belief that voters will shun Raila for being a "State Project'.This narrative will fracture at the waist and sink to the ground headfast and deep.

And therefore, knowing that this narrative has stunted and is stuck, he (Ruto) decided to travel to the United States and the United Kingdom with his entourage to 'report' The Government in which he is the second most powerful person to beat the drums of rigging claims in the ears of the White man. His main aim of stoking the 'rigging' claim was to appeal to the World powers for sympathy so that when he is eventually vanquished, he will have a  feeble, but ready straw to clutch at.

So even as we ponder whether the ' *Wazungus* ' believed him, sympathized with him, empathized with him, looked down upon him or laughed at his foolishness because no American leader nor European leader has ever appealed to Africa for Political support at election time, one thing is clear: The Man from Sugoi is preparing his followers for rejection of the outcome of the coming elections.

[caption id="attachment_7767" align="alignnone" width="1200"] File image of Deputy President William Ruto and ODM Leader Raila Odinga. |Photo| Courtesy|[/caption]

The Second in command who just a few years ago dreamt big, euphoric that he was the next President in waiting has exhausted his tricks, financial resources, luck and energy from long, gruesome years of premature campaigns which ultimately turned tragic when President Uhuru Kenyatta officially endorsed Raila for the Presidency to the chagrin of Ruto and his henchmen.

Ruto's heart is literally burning with rage. His mind is almost grinding to a halt from confusion set upon his situation by impatience and poor scheming. His house is tumbling down as he helplessly watches. His dreams are evaporating right before his eyes. He chose to mock, underestimate, disregard and pick an unnecessary war with the sitting Head of State. This is why he is worried that he will or may be rigged out. For this reason, he is actively whipping up the emotions of his supporters for purposes of a bargain after the elections.

The game plan of Ruto can therefore be summarised in this statement: Try as much as possible to get as many UDA/UDA affiliated, Friendly members of Parliament as possible so that when the Presidential votes fall short, then he can argue that he had been denied the Presidency through acts of cheating. This will be despite the fact that claims of rigging in previous elections have been raised by his erstwhile buddies, Sabina Chege and Moses Kuria. Dr Ruto takes pride in rigging other politicians out but he thinks it's unfair when he is (himself) rigged out. What a man with a misplaced, towering sense of entitlement!

Knowing that it is near impossible to outsmart Raila in the imminent polls, the father of June may be preparing to re-introduce the 2007/2008 post-election uncertainty script, though will less violence so as to force a Unity Government. This is precisely why he visited USA and UK because he knows, these nations can easily advocate and push for a 'shared ' Government as happened between Kibaki and Raila.

But Ruto will not just stop there because he has 'tasted' power and knows its sweetness. For this reason, he will not allow power to slip through his fingers without a spirited fight and without himself attempting to rig the elections in his favour. He will in the alternative frustrate Raila,'s win in court with a barrage of lawyers in tow. This is the reason why his team has in the recent past bragged about having a powerful assembly of top-rated lawyers.

The second in command is a nagging fighter, a ruthless Political 'thug', a man who believes in 'the end justifies the means'. He has an insatiable appetite for power, a sad reality that makes him take the Presidential contest as a matter of life and death. He is, therefore, prepared to push to the wire. It should not, therefore, come as a shocker to many citizens when the same, 'Handshake ' which Ruto has always loathed and transformed into a helpless, habitual punching bag becomes his rescue plan through the resurrection of The Building Bridges Initiative or something similar.

Truly, a politician is a greater contender for the ability to adopt multiple shades of colours and shapes than a chameleon. A day in politics remains a formidable, worrying or hopeful, potential game-changer.